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Rob gripes about the weathermen and makes his own forecast

I'm starting to doubt the credibility of our weather forecasters. In central Texas, the lack of rain has become a problem lately. I happen to like rain, and I like my yard to be green without having to waste water by using a sprinkler.

I'm not mad at the weather (well, maybe a little). What I don't like is that local TV meteorologists have been telling us for a couple of days now that there's a 50-60% of measurable rain today (they just dropped that down to 40-50% as of this morning). I'm not a scientist, but perhaps our meteorologists are not looking at the same radars and maps that they're showing the viewers. Clearly, the maps show that the large area of precipitation in southeastern and eastern Texas is moving directly to the north. The low-pressure system causing this rain is being pushed eastward by a high pressure system off to the north and west. My untrained eyes can see that this rain is not going to make it to central Texas, and there were actually signs of this yesterday afternoon. That's OK, but wasn't this a possibility that was foressen three days ago? Just yesterday, these meteorologists were telling us that there was a 60% chance of rain and a possibility for 1-2 inches of rain in our area. If there was a possibility that things would change, shouldn't the percentage have been down closer to 30-40% all along?

I would have turned on my sprinkler days ago, but I thought a 60% chance of rain was a pretty good shot that we'd get something, and held out. Now, it appears we may get nothing, and the dry spell will continue. Again, I'm not a meteorologist, but when I looked at the weather maps yesterday afternoon, it was looking less and less like rain. The forecasters were still calling for a 60% chance of rain, so I thought they perhaps were seeing something that I wasn't. Apparently, they weren't.

The moral of the story is that I need to start relying on my own judgement rather than relying on the scientists who are paid to figure these things out.

Rob's forecast for this afternoon: Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of rain showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Highs in the mid to upper 80's. Rainfall totals of less than a half an inch.

Comments

  1. It's about time you found a career that you can handle. I know forecasting the weather is a complicated and challenging position to hold down. I mean you just can't look outside anymore.. You have to know how to predict the right percentage so that you won't be wrong or right... :-).. I have to say that I think that TV Weathermen/women go through a screening process where if they act like they can predict weather at all with any accuracy that they are deemed NOT exceptable for TV and are banished to the Weather Channel backrooms or asked to change careers to something like telephone repairman.

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